Paranormal Investigation Notes

Chapter 193 Probability
Lu Ming continued to narrate.

"And, as the distance from the sun changes, the speed of the asteroid's movement will also change.

So... Considering all these changes, after comprehensive calculation based on the current data, the time when it reaches the closest point to the earth should be 136.5 hours later. "

He Wei was startled.

Lu Ming raised his head.

"A more precise time calculation should be between 19:19 am and [-]:[-] am NO.[-]. This time range is among the doomsday prophecies, that prophecy—November NO.[-] Ten seventeen in the morning, exactly plus or minus one hour's error."

Lu Ming's expression was unprecedentedly serious.

"So, this asteroid... is the asteroid in the doomsday prophecy of the doomsday organization. It can't be wrong."

With such a small difference in time, the matter is almost certain.

And, this also really shows that the doomsday predictions made by the doomsday organization are indeed not nonsense.

Lu Ming didn't believe that if it was nonsense, how could it be such a coincidence, how could it happen to be so close to the time when the asteroid finally reached the closest point to the earth.

"So... if such an asteroid really hit the earth, what would happen?"

He Wei looked at Lu Ming.Lu Ming was silent for a moment, then said: "I don't know the specific details, but I can roughly calculate it.

The total mass of this asteroid is about 550 billion tons.If the impact really happens, its impact speed with the earth will be about 340 kilometers per second.Then, such an impact will release about 3.18*10^24 power joules of energy. "

This number is too large to be intuitive.

"For comparison, about 7000 million years ago, according to research, the asteroid that may have exterminated the dinosaurs was much larger in volume and mass than the asteroid at the moment, but its speed was too slow.

The energy released by that impact is about 4.2*10^23 joules.

That is, the energy released by this impact will be 7.5 times the energy released by that impact.

If we compare the energy released by the Tsar H-bomb, the largest hydrogen bomb produced in human history, then the energy released by this asteroid impact is roughly equivalent to... 1500 million Tsar H-bombs exploded at the same time. "

What the hell!

For the number 3.18*10^24 joules, people don't have a very intuitive impression, and they don't feel anything in their hearts.But when it comes to the Tsar's hydrogen bomb, there are still 1500 million Tsar's hydrogen bombs, and I immediately have an intuitive impression in my heart.

Just one Tsar hydrogen bomb is enough to have an impact on the whole world, not to mention that there are 1500 million bombs at this moment.

Not 1500 pieces, but a full 1500 million pieces!

At this moment, several people's breathing was a little short, and the same thought appeared in their hearts at the same time.

Can't let it hit the earth!Absolutely not!If it does hit the earth, everyone will die!
But after this thought, what came oncoming was a deep sense of powerlessness.

It was a distant planet from an unknown number of trillions of kilometers away.

That is a super high speed, even faster than the fastest space and aircraft made by man.

How should human civilization resist such an existence?How could it be possible to resist?

At this moment, the only thing that human civilization can hope for, the only thing that can be counted on, is that Lu Ming's prophecy will come true.

The doomsday organization's prediction on this matter has errors.And the difference is thousands of miles away. Although this asteroid did appear, although it will indeed be very close to the earth, it will not collide with the earth.It will pass the earth.

The doomsday prophecy made by the doomsday organization and the prophecy made by Lu Ming, whichever prophecy comes true will determine the ownership of the entire earth.

"Qing Liang, keep in real-time contact with the Asteroid Early Warning Center and the Disaster Prevention Headquarters. Report any progress immediately."

"Yes."

Although they knew that their own side could not do anything about it or interfere with it, they still couldn't wait to know every step of the way.

Lu Ming knew that the appearance of this asteroid would instantly attract the attention of everyone who knew it.From this moment on, events related to this asteroid will be the number one priority.

The importance of anything comes after this one.

Time passed slowly in silence.After a long time, Lu Qingliang suddenly said: "Scientists at the Disaster Prevention Headquarters have proposed a plan. They plan to launch nuclear missiles to intercept this asteroid. Currently, the team of scientists is discussing the feasibility."

The hydrogen bomb is the most powerful weapon at the disposal of human civilization.Facing an asteroid that may hit the earth, it seems very reasonable to launch a hydrogen bomb to intercept it, or just change its orbit.

Perhaps, hydrogen bombs can really play a role in it.

Lu Ming still looked heavy.

He doesn't think this approach will work.

Sure enough, Lu Qingliang sent back new information soon.

"The team of scientists discussed 47 options for intercepting the asteroid with nuclear missiles, or changing its orbit, but all were rejected. This option is not feasible."

This result did not exceed Lu Ming's expectation at all.

Although this asteroid can only be regarded as a grain of dust compared to the earth, it is still too big.The energy it carries is also too large, and the speed is too fast.

With the current technology of human beings, it is impossible to make the rocket carrying the hydrogen bomb meet it precisely.In other words, it is impossible to launch a hydrogen bomb to this asteroid.

Even if humans have a suitable rocket to launch a hydrogen bomb to the asteroid, the power of the hydrogen bomb is too small to change the trajectory of the asteroid.

"The Disaster Prevention Command concluded that with the current scientific and technological strength of human civilization, it is impossible to exert any meaningful influence on this asteroid. We can only let it go."

Lu Ming came to this conclusion very early on.But Lu Ming's conclusions are not rigorous, nor have they been rigorously calculated. Most of them belong to the category of intuition.Now, the conclusion drawn by the Disaster Prevention Headquarters is different.

It is rigorous enough and supported by a large amount of data and evidence.This conclusion cannot be overturned.

If they say there is no way, then there is really no way.

Lu Ming sighed slightly.

Why doesn't he hope that those great scientists and people with top intelligence in various fields can find ways that they can't think of.But the reality is that no one can do anything about it.

The news from the Disaster Prevention Headquarters continues.

"The command strategy has changed from resisting possible asteroid impacts to, if the impact is inevitable, preserving the heritage of human civilization as much as possible and continuing human civilization."

The command's statement is extremely strict.What it says is not "reducing losses", but "preserving legacy".

Obviously, the command clearly believes that once the impact occurs, the entire civilization may be destroyed, so how can we talk about reducing losses?It's a blessing to be able to keep a little more.

The pessimism in it is self-evident.

"The command believes that in order to do this, there is a premise that the asteroid's advancing trajectory must be monitored accurately, closely, and in real time. Only by collecting enough data can it be confirmed as soon as possible whether the impact will occur. If the impact occurs , where is the point of impact.

Only when the impact point is confirmed, can the impact model be used to calculate where the least affected area is.Only there can the seeds of civilization be preserved as much as possible to ensure the continuation of civilization. "

At this moment, the asteroid is still more than 1 million kilometers away from the earth.There are still about five days left.

A distance of [-] million kilometers is not that far.People also have the precise orbit data of this asteroid some time ago.

But even so, it is still not [-]% certain whether the final impact will occur.

Because in the next voyage, the orbit of this asteroid will still be affected in many ways.

The gravitational influence of Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, the earth, the moon, and the sun, the gravitational influence between these stars, the density of interstellar dust, the radiation power of the sun, etc., there may be potentially countless factors that can cause this Influence.

Therefore, one can only calculate a probability of impact.

Only when the asteroid is close enough and the time from impact is short enough can it be finally confirmed whether there will be an impact.Just like how the weather can be accurately forecasted only at this moment and the next moment.

The universe is chaotic in the long run, but it can be quite precise in the short run.

"At this moment, all available observation forces have been aimed at this asteroid code-named 'Reaper'."

"At this moment, among the possible safe areas of 600 million square kilometers, according to the current data, about 26 square kilometers have been excluded. The material reserve center in this area is temporarily sealed and will not be replenished."

Currently known data are limited.But relying on these data alone is enough to exclude some areas that were originally thought to be safe.

"Suspected to be affected by the mass transfer caused by the Jupiter storm, the orbit of Reaper has slightly shifted. Based on this, the impact probability has been approved and determined to be 2%."

When the mass is transferred, the gravitational field will also fluctuate.

Another few hours passed.

"It is suspected that due to the influence of solar wind and light pressure radiation, the orbit of Reaper Star has shifted. Based on this, the impact probability has been approved and determined to be 6.5%."

Before, due to some other factors, the probability once increased to 4%, but it fell back to about 2.6%, then climbed to 8% at one point, and now it has dropped back to 6.5%.

Like a stock, it goes up and down.But anyone can clearly feel that from the perspective of the overall trend, the probability is constantly rising.

This is not good news.

During this time, Lu Ming, Zhang Dingshan, He Wei, and Lu Qingliang stayed in the video conference room all the time.Even eating and sleeping are all carried out on the conference table.

Lu Qingliang continued to broadcast news from the asteroid early warning center and disaster prevention command center.

The tension and heaviness of the atmosphere are almost visible to the naked eye.

At this moment, the ark base.

Before finishing today's work, in Wang Long's hand, on the mobile phone issued by the base, in the communication app specially developed for the personnel in the Ark base, an amazing news broke out in the group chat.

"Outside, the Asteroid Warning Center has confirmed the discovery of an asteroid that is approaching the Earth! The probability of impact has been judged to be 1%!"

"This asteroid is temporarily named Death Star. Its longest length is 3.1 kilometers and its total mass is about 560 billion tons. Once it hits the earth, it will release energy equivalent to 1500 million Tsar Bombs and destroy the world!"

The group chat, which was originally a little deserted due to working hours, suddenly became lively with a bang.

"Asteroid! It's really coming!"

"How could the prophecy of the Son of God be wrong!"

"Hahahahaha! This day is finally here!"

"Long live the Son of God! Long live!"

"The end of the world is coming, I can't wait!"

There was a lot of excitement in the group chat.However, the interim director of the base actually complied with public opinion at this time and issued an announcement.

"From now on, except for the essential positions in the base, all other positions in the base will be temporarily closed for half a day. Now, everyone can concentrate on the matter of the asteroid impact."

"Hooray! Hooray!"

Wang Long roared excitedly.

After waiting for so many days and being uneasy for so many days, now, everything is finally settled!

That's right, the dust has settled!
The time predicted by the Son of God is 19:19 am on November No. How can it be such a coincidence to reach the closest point to the earth, and the two times are only a little bit apart?
If it's not a coincidence, then it can only be destiny, and it can only prove that the prophecy of the Son of God is indeed correct!
Once the end is fixed, the better days to come are also fixed.At that time, people like myself will be the masters of this earth.

He followed the excited people to the lounge.People sat together in twos and threes, each discussing this matter.

At this moment, the hearts of the people in the Ark base were condensed to the peak level.

He also found a place to sit at random, took out his phone, connected to the Internet, and started browsing information.

So he saw that, except for some people who were more concerned about this news, not many people in the outside world cared about it.

Some netizens even think that if there is a 1% probability of impact, doesn't that mean a 99% probability of no impact?99% of them will not collide, so why worry about it.

There are also people who think that if the sky falls and you are a tall man, and you are just a mediocre person, you can just live in peace.

At this moment, it was still the entertainment news that Wang Long wouldn't even glance at, occupying the headlines.

The outside world is still singing and dancing, peaceful and prosperous.

Wang Long put away his cell phone with a smile on his face.

"Ignorant fools, soon, you will see what the end of the world looks like. All of you will die, but I can live on, and even become the master of this entire earth and the entire human civilization."

……

(End of this chapter)